Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.612397 3.573543 4.940521 7.096516 1.054981e+01 1.613148e+01 26.455739
2025-02-23 1.588000 2.479261 3.992781 6.956363 1.319725e+01 2.745184e+01 69.727418
2025-03-02 1.014707 1.743734 3.158578 6.459209 1.531928e+01 4.393711e+01 194.228066
2025-03-09 0.756691 1.425491 2.906815 7.065538 2.185574e+01 9.771695e+01 1186.538015
2025-03-16 0.574857 1.169774 2.647310 7.570001 3.090352e+01 2.413247e+02 22708.491683
2025-03-23 0.458170 1.001237 2.505407 8.466601 4.753131e+01 8.336760e+02 NaN
2025-03-30 0.369577 0.858703 2.350632 9.310486 7.348663e+01 4.222998e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.286686 0.693863 2.020148 8.973611 9.311759e+01 2.158810e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 0.222749 0.555600 1.694522 8.233678 1.078678e+02 1.599662e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 0.187942 0.488511 1.589948 8.803198 1.677234e+02 3.309611e+11 NaN
2025-04-27 0.165948 0.451640 1.583627 10.264186 3.290459e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.148858 0.423594 1.599828 12.244442 7.570405e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.128512 0.378326 1.514246 13.288705 1.583012e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.107778 0.323697 1.341470 12.819113 2.469108e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.089685 0.272674 1.154608 11.644884 3.155679e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.079913 0.249972 1.113503 12.801529 9.354629e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.071194 0.228198 1.062481 13.760060 3.365754e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.064716 0.213153 1.043545 15.562580 3.442064e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.058827 0.198433 1.015989 17.281177 3.825484e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.051735 0.176162 0.918232 16.486374 8.846893e+10 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.045171 0.154386 0.810499 14.874053 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.041447 0.144222 0.783711 16.018951 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.039078 0.139436 0.795798 19.084747 NaN NaN NaN